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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?acwcia31.html THE world is on the brink of a new era that may resemble the script of
a James Bond film in which international affairs are increasingly
determined by large and powerful organisations rather than governments,
according to a study just published by the CIA in Washington.
These could include alliances between some of the most powerful
criminal groups such as the Mafia and Chinese triads. Such groups,
according to the CIA, "will corrupt leaders of unstable, economically
fragile or failing states, insinuate themselves into troubled banks and
businesses, and co-operate with insurgent political movements to control
substantial geographic areas".
The agency adds: "Their income will come from narcotics
trafficking; aliens smuggling; trafficking in women and children;
smuggling toxic materials, hazardous wastes, illicit arms, military
technologies, and other contraband; financial fraud; and
racketeering."
The 70-page report, Global Trends 2015, will be required reading for
the new president, George W Bush, and his senior policy advisers. It
suggests that the early years of the coming century are likely to be
filled with both potential and peril.
Compiled with help from think tanks in America and the International
Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the report projects a future in
which globalisation, whether in the shape of the European Union, the
International Monetary Fund, giant corporations or terrorist gangs, plays
an increasing part in the lives of ordinary people.
"Governments will have less and less control over flows of
information, technology, diseases, migrants, arms, and financial
transactions, whether licit or illicit," it concludes.
In addition to confronting the growing economic and military power of
China and India and the continuing decline of Russia, the CIA says:
"Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly
sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties."
In particular it notes the growing threat of biological and chemical
weapons and "suitcase" nuclear devices against the United
States. In addition, it expects rogue states such as Iraq and Iran to
develop long range missiles in the near future.
Iran, it says, could be testing such weapons by as early as the coming
year, and cruise missiles by 2004. Iraq could have missiles capable of
hitting America by 2015, with both nations developing nuclear, chemical
and biological warheads.
Potential flashpoints have a familiar ring and include India and
Pakistan, China's relations with Taiwan, and the Middle East, where the
best that can be hoped for is a "cold peace".
Elsewhere, the world population will grow by more than one billion, to
7.2 billion, most of the increase coming in the mega-cities of the
developing world. In Europe and Japan, an ageing population and static
birthrate means that allowing more immigration may be the only way of
meeting a chronic shortage of workers.
The gloomiest predictions are reserved for Africa, where Aids, famine,
and continuing economic and political turmoil means that populations in
many countries will actually fall. At least three billion people will live
in regions where water is in increasingly short supply.
On the other hand, there is good news on energy supplies. "Energy
resources will be sufficient to meet demand," the study says. The CIA
report is most optimistic on the world economy, which it says has a
potential for growth not seen since the 1960s. Computer technology
represents "the most significant global transformation since the
Industrial Revolution".
"At the same time, genetically modified crops will offer the
potential to improve nutrition among the world's one billion malnourished
people. China's economy will grow to overtake Europe as the world's second
largest but still behind the United States. Russia's economy will contract
to barely a fifth of America's.
The study expects the European Union to narrow the economic gap with
America. It points out, however, that "lingering labour market
rigidity and state regulation" mean that "Europe will not
achieve fully the dreams of parity with the US as a shaper of the global
economic system".
The 2015 report is an update of a 1997 CIA study into the world in
2010, which it admits failed to anticipate the global economic crisis that
occurred between 1997 and 1998 which had the hardest impact in the Far
East and Russia.
The new survey suggests a number of alternative scenarios, none of
which makes happy reading. These include a trade war between Europe and
America, and an alliance between terrorist organisations to attack the
West. Most alarming of all, it raises the possibility of economic
stagnation, followed by America abdicating its role as the world's
policeman.
At the same time tensions begin to grow in the Far East, where China
orders Japan to dismantle its nuclear programme, leaving, the report says,
no alternative but for "US re-engagement in Asia under adverse
circumstances at the brink of a major war". |